Danish intelligence warns Russia may attack NATO members within months

Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) warned on Tuesday that Moscow could launch a limited military attack within the next few months against a NATO member that shares a border with Russia. The assessment, shared with Sky News, says the threat is “realistic” and could involve artillery, air strikes or a short‑range missile strike aimed at a specific target rather than a full‑scale invasion. The service did not name the country, but analysts say the most likely candidates are Finland, Norway or the three Baltic states, all of which joined NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The warning comes as Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on and its leadership continues to test the resolve of the alliance. In recent weeks Moscow has increased its deployment of short‑range missiles and artillery units along its western frontier, and it has conducted several large‑scale exercises that simulated attacks on neighboring territories. NATO’s eastward expansion, especially the accession of Finland and the Baltic states, has been a persistent grievance for Moscow, which has repeatedly warned that it will not tolerate “aggressive encroachment.” The DDIS assessment reflects a broader intelligence picture that sees Russia looking for limited, provocation‑style actions to keep NATO on edge without triggering a full‑scale response.

NATO Secretary‑General Jens Stoltenberg called the Danish warning “a sober reminder that the alliance’s eastern flank remains vulnerable” and said the organization would boost its forward presence and readiness in the region. Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, urged member states to increase intelligence sharing and to keep diplomatic channels open with Moscow to avoid miscalculation. NATO’s Allied Command Operations is expected to review force posture in the area and may accelerate the deployment of additional air‑defence units and rapid‑reaction troops. The warning also raises questions for European security planners about how to deter a limited Russian strike while preventing escalation into a broader conflict.