Will the US-Iran war and Hormuz deadlock last for months?

The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has entered a critical juncture, with uncertainty about the future of the conflict leaving international markets and regional stability hanging in the balance.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 between Iran and the US had paused a war, which began on February 28, but the truce has since collapsed.

Central to this protracted crisis is the strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz . Iran enforced a near-total closure of the waterway when fighting broke out again, disrupting global oil and liquefied natural gas exports and sending energy prices soaring.

With indirect diplomatic tracks – notably mediated through Oman – now attempting to secure a temporary 60-day transit route, fundamental disagreements regarding sovereignty and regional security threaten to prolong the current deadlock for months.

On the ground, the US continues to maintain an aggressive posture. US Central Command (CENTCOM) recently reported redirecting 48 commercial vessels, boarding two and disabling two others as part of its strict naval blockade on Iran.

US President Donald Trump described this as an unyielding “wall of steel”, demanding total surrender by Tehran or a comprehensive deal before easing the pressure.

Trump explicitly warned Tehran that current negotiations represent its “ last chance before decapitation “. However, the US Treasury concurrently removed sanctions on three IRGC-linked airlines, sending Tehran mixed signals about Washington’s intent.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Iran is carefully weighing Washington’s vulnerabilities, including depleted missile stockpiles and the political cost of the war ahead of the US midterm elections in November.