What a fake poll reveals about worries around prediction markets and the midterms

The prediction market app Kalshi is displayed on a mobile phone Thursday, April 16, 2026, in Chicago. Erin Hooley/Associated Press hide caption

Earlier this month, after news broke that a phony company had released fake election polls , it prompted immediate speculation that the stunt was an attempt to manipulate prediction markets — fears especially pronounced with midterms right around the corner.

The 21-year old man behind the fake polls posted a statement saying the bogus polls were "a short-term social experiment" to see just how fast the fabricated figures would circulate in news stories and social media. He said he was not trying to profit off the attention the polls attracted.

But the suspicion was understandable, considering the spate of high-profile market manipulators uncovered in recent months on the surging prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket, where billions of dollars of bets flow in every week on everything from baseball games to the future of the Trump administration's policies.

While the poll stunt may not have been an effort to rig prediction markets, concerns are growing ahead of the midterms two months away about other attempts to influence the betting sites with ginned-up polls, viral social media campaigns, or other misinformation.

"These markets are very easily manipulated, and the platforms say they invest in surveillance and catch people after the fact, but when it comes to elections, the consequences are really grave," said Amanda Fischer, chief policy officer at Better Markets, a financial reform group that studies prediction markets.

Fischer added that since this is about to be the first major election cycle with Kalshi and Polymarket having gone mainstream, "some folks will be looking for ways to game prediction markets, partisan interests, and worse, perhaps even foreign actors."

This year, prediction market operators have caught traders trying to make a buck through various types of insider trading, from a special forces soldier betting on the operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro to former Congressman George Santos betting against his own attendance at the State of the Union address to President Trump's teleprompter operator profiting off the president's prepared remarks.