Extreme weather cuts U.S. bus ridership up to 20 percent

Public transit ridership drops when the weather turns extreme, new data from U.S. cities shows. A 2023 study by the University of California, Berkeley found bus use falls by up to 10% during heavy rain, 15% in extreme heat, and 20% when wildfire smoke fills the air. The numbers come from transit agencies in Seattle, Portland, and Denver—cities that face all three conditions regularly.

Researchers say the slump isn’t just about comfort. Most U.S. buses lack heating or cooling systems that work well in harsh weather, and shelters at stops are often sparse. That means riders face long waits in rain, scorching sun, or choking air. The problem matters because transit systems rely on steady ridership to fund service and reduce traffic congestion. Cities with steep ridership swings struggle to plan routes and budgets. The federal government has poured $39 billion into bus upgrades since 2021, but only a fraction has gone toward weather-proofing stops or vehicles.

The trend isn’t new, but it’s getting worse. Climate change is making heat waves, storms, and wildfires more frequent and intense. In Phoenix, ridership dips by nearly a quarter when temperatures top 110 degrees Fahrenheit. In Portland, bus use fell 18% during last summer’s smoke season. Transit agencies are starting to respond. Some are adding more covered stops, installing misting fans, or testing heat-resistant seating materials. Others are using real-time weather data to adjust schedules or offer discounts on bad-weather days. But progress is slow. Most agencies say they lack the funds to fully upgrade their systems.

What happens next could shape how Americans use buses for decades. If cities don’t invest in weather-ready infrastructure, ridership may keep dropping, forcing cuts to service and higher fares. But if they act, buses could become a more reliable option for commuters who can’t afford cars or don’t want to drive in dangerous conditions. The Biden administration’s push for better public transit might help, but only if local leaders prioritize projects that shield riders from the elements. The next few years will show whether buses can adapt—or if climate change will push more people back into their cars.