Think Your Next Social Security Raise Will Be Enough? History Says Otherwise.

Key Points Current estimates are calling for a larger COLA in 2027 than what seniors got earlier in 2026. Even if next year's COLA is more substantial, history suggests seniors may end up disappointed. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › If you were disappointed in your 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, that's understandable. Earlier this year, benefits rose just 2.8%. Granted, that boost was higher than the 2.5% COLA that came through the year before. But in 2022, 2023, and 2024, Social Security COLAs came to 5.9%, 8.7%, and 3.2%, respectively. So it's easy to see why this year's 2.8% raise just didn't cut it for many retirees. Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue » Image source: Getty Images. The good news is that current estimates are pointing to a larger Social Security COLA in 2027. But retirees shouldn't necessarily expect that raise to help them maintain their buying power. The 2027 COLA could disappoint Current projections are calling for a 2027 Social Security COLA in the 3.4% to 3.6% range. The COLA won't be made official until mid-October, since the Social Security Administration needs to wait on key inflation data from September to run that calculation. Still, even the low end of that range would be a significant increase over this year's COLA. And many seniors may end up relatively happy with that raise -- at least at first. But in reality, a 3.4% COLA is likely to fall short. So is a 4.4% COLA or an even larger one, for that matter. In fact, history tells us that pretty much any COLA that comes through in the new year is likely to be a letdown. Social Security benefits keep losing buying power The reason next year's COLA is likely to be a disappointment boils down to a flaw in the way those raises are calculated. Social Security COLAs are based on third-quarter changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). But the CPI-W focuses on the spending habits of working people -- not retirees on Social Security . Due to this mismatch, the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, reports that Social Security benefits have lost 13.7% of their buying power over the past 10 years. And the reason is that those annual COLAs have not managed to keep up with real-world inflation. What this also means is that next year's COLA is likely to let seniors down in the same regard. So if you're banking on a larger raise to improve your financial picture, you may need to come up with a different plan. That plan could involve moving to an area of the U.S. where your Social Security benefits can go further. It could mean downsizing or getting a part-time job. But either way, you shouldn't expect too much out of next year's COLA, even if the number is significantly higher than the boost your benefits received earlier this year. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook If you're like most Americans, you're a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known "Social Security secrets" could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. One easy trick could pay you as much as $23,760 more ... each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we're all after. Join Stock Advisor to learn more about these strategies. View the "Social Security secrets" » The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

Current estimates are calling for a larger COLA in 2027 than what seniors got earlier in 2026.

Even if next year's COLA is more substantial, history suggests seniors may end up disappointed.

If you were disappointed in your 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, that's understandable. Earlier this year, benefits rose just 2.8%.

Granted, that boost was higher than the 2.5% COLA that came through the year before. But in 2022, 2023, and 2024, Social Security COLAs came to 5.9%, 8.7%, and 3.2%, respectively. So it's easy to see why this year's 2.8% raise just didn't cut it for many retirees.

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

The good news is that current estimates are pointing to a larger Social Security COLA in 2027. But retirees shouldn't necessarily expect that raise to help them maintain their buying power.

Current projections are calling for a 2027 Social Security COLA in the 3.4% to 3.6% range. The COLA won't be made official until mid-October, since the Social Security Administration needs to wait on key inflation data from September to run that calculation.