These Michigan swing voters are bracing for higher prices from trade war with Canada

Mel Gutherie, president of Gutherie Lumber, walks among Canadian lumber products on Aug. 25 in Livonia, Mich. Paul Sancya/AP hide caption

President Trump's tariff standoff with Canada is rankling some key voters ahead of this year's midterm elections.

NPR observed two online focus groups Wednesday night with 13 people in Michigan who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024. Eleven of these swing voters said the trade war with Canada, which borders Michigan, would be bad for the state. Not a single person said they felt there was something positive to gain from this tension with their northern neighbor.

A majority of the participants said they are most worried higher tariffs could worsen an affordability crisis — a central issue in this year's midterms. Nine said they were concerned Trump's tariffs would affect what they personally pay for some products.

"Prices are going to go up," said P.J., a 45-year-old self-described Democrat. (Participants took part in these sessions under the condition their last names would not be used.) "The more we put tariffs on stuff, the more they put tariffs on stuff. I mean, prices are just ultimately going to go up for all of us."

While focus groups are not scientifically significant like polls, these sessions do provide insight into what this politically powerful sliver of the electorate is thinking and feeling. This year, Michigan voters will weigh in on a closely watched Senate race that could be key in deciding whether Democrats regain control of the chamber.

These focus groups with swing voters in battleground states are held by messaging firm Engagious and market research recruiting firm Nelson Recruiting . NPR partners with them each month as part of the Swing Voter Project .

Rich Thau, the president of Engagious, moderates these discussions. He said because Michigan borders Canada, voters there are particularly nervous about financial blowback from Trump's tariff policies.