Pakistan launches strikes against Taliban, India eyes influence in Afghanistan

Pakistan and Afghanistan are currently experiencing heightened tensions marked by repeated border clashes. This conflict escalated in February 2026 when Pakistan initiated military strikes against Taliban militants in Afghanistan. As hostilities continued, Pakistan's defense minister declared in March that the two countries were in a state of "open war." The situation remains volatile, with recent Pakistani operations targeting the Taliban's alleged "terrorist hubs" reported in early October.

The underlying cause of this conflict stems from Pakistan's accusations that the Taliban government in Kabul is providing sanctuary to the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which conducts attacks on Pakistani soil from Afghan territory. Kabul has consistently denied these claims. The intensifying violence has not only strained bilateral relations but also shifted the regional dynamics, creating a complex diplomatic landscape that could benefit India.

Experts believe that India could leverage this situation to expand its influence in Afghanistan. Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, an Afghanistan specialist, notes that the ongoing conflict diminishes Pakistan's traditional sway over Afghanistan and prompts the Taliban to seek broader international relations. India could enhance its diplomatic engagement and humanitarian efforts while ensuring that Afghan territory is not used by anti-India militants. However, D'Souza warns that this does not signify a deep ideological alignment between India and the Taliban.

Former Indian diplomats caution against viewing the conflict merely as an opportunity for India to gain at Pakistan's expense. Amar Sinha emphasizes that the issues at stake are largely disconnected from Indian interests and highlights the impact of Pakistan's military actions on Afghan civilians. While the deteriorating relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban creates an opening for India, it is unlikely to lead to a strategic partnership. The Taliban may pursue relations with a range of countries, including China, Russia, and Iran, making it clear that their autonomy will remain intact despite any newfound Indian engagement.