New report shows the economic toll of ICE raids

A poster calling on U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to get out of the community hangs on a door in the Little Village neighborhood on January 22, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson/Getty Images hide caption

A new study shows that the widespread fear and isolation caused by the immigration crackdowns that began in early 2025 had a significant economic toll on Chicago commerce, draining over $1.26 billion from local businesses.

The report , published by the University of Illinois Chicago, used anonymous cellphone GPS data to track movement between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods throughout Chicago's Cook County. Researchers found that the routine back-and-forth between these areas collapsed almost immediately after President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2025, amid rampant rumors and the subsequent sweeps that Chicago would be targeted for immediate Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids.

Professor Matt Wilson, a co-author of the study, noted how strongly the economic ripples were felt outside of immigrant communities in the area. The report estimates that decreased consumer mobility cost retail shops and restaurants in non-immigrant neighborhoods roughly $1.26 billion, while costing the state of Illinois an estimated $107 million in lost tax revenue.

"We see a 9% drop in retail and a 10% drop in restaurant visits, and it persisted for about a year," Wilson told NPR. "And it's not that it recovered after a year. People's behavior systematically changed after January 20, 2025." He says the city has yet to recover.

People walk along 26th Street, the heart of the commercial district in the Little Village neighborhood in Chicago, a neighborhood predominantly composed of Mexican immigrants. Scott Olson/Getty Images hide caption

For small businesses, a sustained 10% drop in foot traffic business over the course of a year can be a serious financial hit. The new study challenges assumptions about immigrant community isolation, Wilson added. "I think a lot of people treat Latino and some immigrant communities as if they're insular and isolated," Wilson said. "But it's really that these communities are much more integrated into the broader economy, and they are making trips to faraway places in the county, routinely."

The intense fear that triggered these behavior shifts was palpable in the days surrounding the 2025 inauguration.