Morgan Stanley Says SpaceX Is Worth $300 Per Share. The Stock Trades Near $140. Here's Who I Think Is Right.

Key Points SpaceX is down sharply from all-time highs set shortly after it went public in June. Morgan Stanley analysts paint a rosy outlook. The company is expected to incur steep losses through 2029 before turning the corner. 10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies › It's not surprising that Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) hasn't blasted off since its initial public offering on June 12. IPO stocks are notoriously wobbly as they come out of the gate, as the novelty wears off, and reality sets in. SpaceX stock had an IPO price of $135, opened at $150, and rose to $225 in its first few days as investors lined up to buy a piece of Elon Musk's newest venture. But shares are back in the $150 range, having fallen nearly 35% at the two-month mark of trading. Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue » But the space-and-AI company has a world of potential, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The investment bank has a $300 price target on SpaceX stock, but says the company has potential for even greater gains. "The implied valuation for SpaceX's AI business at the current price is, in our opinion, extremely conservative," analysts led by Adam Jones wrote in a note. They argue that investors do not appreciate the AI potential that underpins their $300 price target. "From our conversations, very few investors are bullish (on) SpaceX's AI business beyond neocloud," they wrote, referring to its data center leasing deals with Anthropic and Alphabet . There is a major tailwind, according to the analysts, that could push SpaceX stock higher. Let's review. Image source: Getty Images. The three-pronged case for SpaceX SpaceX does a lot of interesting things. First, there's the Space segment, which is home to SpaceX's rocket business. SpaceX deploys reusable rockets that are cheaper to use and have much faster turnaround times. At the end of the second quarter, SpaceX had completed 78 launches this year. However, it's still losing money -- in the second quarter, the Space segment generated $962 million in revenue but lost $542 million. However, SpaceX's Starship vehicle, which will be its largest rocket, could be operational as early as the fourth quarter, and that could be a game-changing development. Launch costs are projected to drop to $500 per kilogram by 2030 and less than $150 by 2040. Meanwhile, the company is projected to continue increasing launches, from 46 Starship launches in 2027 to more than 6,000 annually by 2040. The Connectivity segment includes SpaceX's Starlink business, which involves thousands of satellites in low Earth orbit to provide mobile services and internet connectivity to people in remote locations. Starlink currently has 12 million subscribers and about 10,200 satellites in orbit, but Musk believes Starship will allow it to accelerate growth, making Starlink available in more locations. The Connectivity segment is SpaceX's only profitable business right now, with revenue of $4.29 billion in the second quarter and income of $1.65 billion. That brings us to the segment with the biggest potential -- artificial intelligence. In its prospectus, SpaceX estimates that Enterprise AI is a $22.7 trillion market opportunity . This includes software that automates workflows and improves productivity. Shortly after SpaceX went public, the company made its first major move by announcing it would buy the AI start-up Cursor for $60 billion . Cursor operates an AI coding tool that generates code using agentic AI, and it is used by many tech companies, including OpenAI, Nvidia , and Adobe . Morgan Stanley suggests that investors are undervaluing the upside of the pending acquisition, as new Grok models that incorporate Cursor data improve the outlook for the company's AI efforts. Analysts expect Cursor to increase its annual revenue run rate from $4 billion in June to $8 billion by end of the year, and then grow to $17 billion in 2027 and $33 billion in 2028. "As investors see more breadcrumbs on the Cursor/Grok story, we see potential for the implied valuation discount on SpaceX's AI business to lift, driving potentially substantial appreciation of the stock," they wrote in the research note. Is $300 a realistic price target? Morgan Stanley paints a rosy picture for SpaceX. And I agree that the Cursor acquisition has significant potential to both generate revenue and improve the Grok LLM. Those are important wins for Musk's company. But I also recognize that investors today are punishing companies that spend heavily on AI without delivering results. And SpaceX will have tremendous losses for the next few years -- its lead underwriter, Goldman Sachs , projected negative free cash flow of $105 billion in 2029 before turning things around. Is $300 per share possible? Of course. Musk has proven his detractors wrong over and over. But I also think a lot has to go right for SpaceX to achieve even the $300 price target in the next year or so. I have a lot of skepticism about SpaceX hitting $300 -- or more -- in the next couple of years. It's still too speculative an investment for my taste. Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now? Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Space Exploration Technologies wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $421,511 !* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,381,960 !* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 981 % — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 216% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor , and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 16, 2026. Patrick Sanders has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Adobe, Goldman Sachs Group, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2028 $330 calls on Adobe and short January 2028 $340 calls on Adobe. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

SpaceX is down sharply from all-time highs set shortly after it went public in June.

The company is expected to incur steep losses through 2029 before turning the corner.

It's not surprising that Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) hasn't blasted off since its initial public offering on June 12. IPO stocks are notoriously wobbly as they come out of the gate, as the novelty wears off, and reality sets in.

SpaceX stock had an IPO price of $135, opened at $150, and rose to $225 in its first few days as investors lined up to buy a piece of Elon Musk's newest venture. But shares are back in the $150 range, having fallen nearly 35% at the two-month mark of trading.

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

But the space-and-AI company has a world of potential, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The investment bank has a $300 price target on SpaceX stock, but says the company has potential for even greater gains.

"The implied valuation for SpaceX's AI business at the current price is, in our opinion, extremely conservative," analysts led by Adam Jones wrote in a note. They argue that investors do not appreciate the AI potential that underpins their $300 price target.