Israel is not heading for civil war

On August 24, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood outside the Etzel Museum on Tel Aviv’s seafront after the wreck of the Altalena was discovered. The ship, which belonged to the right-wing Zionist paramilitary organisation Etzel, was shelled by the newly formed Israeli military in 1948. Netanyahu promised to raise it from the seabed and turn it into a symbol for future generations, centred on the message: “Civil war, never again.”

Etzel, better known in English as Irgun, promoted a highly nationalistic vision of Jewish political life and advocated Jewish military supremacy. It had operated as an independent armed organisation before Israel’s establishment and resisted surrendering its weapons and autonomy to the new state. In June 1948, as it was being absorbed into the newly formed Israeli military, the Altalena arrived carrying more than 900 immigrants, medical supplies and a large shipment of weapons. Irgun and the government could not agree on control of the arms, and the dispute escalated into fighting. After an initial confrontation north of Tel Aviv, the ship sailed south towards the city. Left-wing Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion ordered Israeli forces to shell it off Tel Aviv. Etzel leader Menachem Begin, who was on board, urged his supporters not to retaliate and warned against civil war.

For the Israeli right, the Altalena became a symbol of the left’s willingness to use force against fellow Jews to impose its political authority. The episode endured as a historical grievance, but it never became a constant feature of Israeli political life. For decades, it largely remained a symbolic tale, invoked from time to time before gradually receding into historical memory. Its rediscovery in the middle of an election campaign has abruptly revived that symbolism. By invoking Begin’s warning against civil war while resurrecting one of the right’s oldest grievances against the left, Netanyahu was not simply calling for unity. He was also issuing a veiled threat: We remember what you did. If need be, we will come for you as you came for us.

Still, is Israel really headed for a civil war? This seems highly unlikely. The reason is simple: Israelis ultimately agree with each other. There is no deep ideological divide within Israeli public opinion. Instead, there is a broad and deep consensus. Security is the cornerstone of Israeli public life and identity, overriding all other considerations. The primary purpose of the Israeli state is to keep Jews alive, preferably by establishing their supremacy over their neighbours, first and foremost the Palestinians, with whom they are competing for control of the same resources. Security is considered “apolitical”. The October 7, 2023 attacks changed Israel’s security doctrine virtually overnight. Notions such as peace or normalisation were no longer compatible with a security doctrine centred on guaranteeing the safety of Jews.

Israel needed to be able to fight when, where and how it saw fit. Israel needed to increase its already unprecedented impunity and secure permission to exercise full discretion in pursuing its aggressive policies. All Jewish political parties – with “Zionist” now effectively serving as the code word for “Jewish” – agreed on this, even if they had differences of opinion regarding scope. This is, in other words, an agreement to ensure Jewish supremacy in Israel, to not even consider ending the occupation – which the International Court of Justice has found unlawful – and to continue a forever war that provides Israel with justification to “carry the fight to the enemy”, wherever that might be.

In concrete political terms, this means that the Israeli public may abhor Netanyahu’s personal ethics and standards of behaviour, but the great majority still agrees with his policies. Reading the Hebrew press and social media, it is not difficult to see that, with the exception of, at most several thousand people, Israeli Jews are willing to live with this tension and support Israel’s genocidal policies with no end in sight.

This consensus is deeper and more powerful than symbolic games played with obsolete relics. The Israeli military would never fire on settlers attempting to drive Palestinians from their homes. The Israeli military is still Israel: it is the crucible in which Israeli nationalism has been forged. As long as Jewish supremacy remains the cornerstone of the Israeli military and the Israeli state, there will be no civil war.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.