Iran pursues cautious escalation ahead of US midterms

The war with Iran "is going to end immediately after the [US midterm] election because they can't hold out any longer," US President Donald Trump said of Iran's leaders on Wednesday.

Speaking at the Republican midterm convention, the first such event to be held at a massive arena in Dallas, Texas, Trump described the November 3 vote as "one of the most important elections of your lives," and once again defended the war against Iran.

The US president restated his argument that he had launched the attacks to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. He also promised that oil prices would fall as soon as the US had won the war.

But even if Trump's promises are taken at face value, rising gas prices are sure to hurt Republicans' electoral prospects in the midterms .

On Wednesday, Brent crude — the global benchmark for prices — jumped to over $100 (€86) per barrel. The fighting escalated again this week, with the US striking Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for Iran's targeting of a US warship.

"Iran still appears to see escalation primarily as a controlled instrument of coercive bargaining, rather than as an end in itself," said Mohammad Ghaedi, a Middle East expert and professor at the Department of Political Science at George Washington University.

"Iran is trying to impose costs on the United States without raising those costs so dramatically that Washington feels compelled to return to full-scale war," he explained.

"That helps explain why the number of missiles fired at US naval vessels has remained relatively limited."