Africa's low-key high-stakes Strait of Hormuz diplomacy

One of the principal arteries of world trade has been chronically blocked for almost six months. Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a bare minimum since the first US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February. Cargo ships have at times been fired on by Iranian forces; at others, threats from Tehran or Washington have been enough to bring shipping to a standstill.

So far, various rounds of talks , a joint memorandum and third-party deliberations about the creation of a maritime mission have not succeeded in stabilizing the situation. It remains to be seen whether a deal between Iran and Oman on establishing a shipping route through the strait will do so.

The war has prompted fossil fuel prices to soar all over the world, with inflation rising as a result. Despite its relative proximity to the Gulf region, some parts of Africa have experienced serious shortages because of the bottlenecks, with long lines of cars at gas stations that have run out of fuel. As many fertilizers are also sourced from the Gulf region, this year's harvests also threaten to be bad. African governments therefore have every reason to engage diplomatically in finding a permanent solution.

"I believe their long-term plan is still based on the assumption that the crisis in the Middle East may continue for some time," says Liesl Louw-Vaudran from the International Crisis Group , an NGO that works to prevent conflicts.

The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, but Louw-Vaudran, an expert advisor working with the African Union, comments: "We don't see any evidence that there was some kind of optimism or revising of any economic planning after the MOU. I think everyone literally is just waiting to see how this is going to pan out in the next couple of months."

It's certainly the case that a low-key approach has dominated African diplomacy with regard to Hormuz in recent months. There have been numerous calls for negotiated solutions, praise for diplomatic initiatives and an emphasis on the rules-based order. Some African governments have also shown solidarity with the Arab Gulf states, which, as US allies, have come under fire from Iran.

The current African members of the UN Security Council — the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia and Liberia — also backed a UN resolution adopted in March that strongly condemned Iranian attacks on the Gulf states.

However, it is apparent from their communications that African governments are trying to avoid apportioning blame — especially to the US president, who, together with Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu , was the one who started the war .